Black department skyrocketing steel "back and forth under the enemy" funds continue to tighten raw materials competitive price
摘要：The last trading day in November, the futures market ushered in "black Wednesday", the early star varieties appeared a large area of the limit, including many rubber and colored varieties, black iron ore, rebar futures prices fell by the limit, the main contract of coking coal opened the limit at the end of the day, still closed down 8.09%. However, just as market investors thought that the relevant futures varieties would have a correction trend, the previous trading day in December turned around and skyrocketed.
The last trading day in November, the futures market ushered in "black Wednesday", the early star varieties appeared a large area of the limit, including many rubber and colored varieties, black iron ore, rebar futures prices fell by the limit, the main contract of coking coal opened the limit at the end of the day, still closed down 8.09%. However, just as market investors thought that the relevant futures varieties would have a correction trend, the previous trading day in December turned around and skyrocketed.
As market participants say, the rhythm of the black variety is now like a small boat in the big waves, and it will turn over. For this skyrocketing and plunging market, insiders said that this reflects the market itself is full of contradictions, the original bull market this year is initiated by the supply side and maintain black strength, but near the end of the year in the case of weak supply and demand, the market is confused about the future trend.
Money game black varieties
Recently, rebar and iron ore have reached a new high, and there is a collective limit, which is the result of multiple factors. The new round of property market regulation and tightening policies represented by Shanghai and Tianjin exceeded market expectations, and the real estate market faced cooling pressure.In addition, on November 29, China's 10-year bond futures fell 0.81%, a large decline since the listing; Shibor (Shanghai Interbank offered rate) rose across the board for the 15th consecutive trading day, and some people have used "money shortage" to describe the current capital market, the recent market liquidity has been significantly tightened, and the cost of capital continues to increase.
"Since the beginning of this year, long and short funds have been constantly playing games, which also makes the "asset shortage" and "fund shortage" on the futures board." The asset shortage in the first half of the year led to the reallocation of funds, which brought about large fluctuations in the futures plate; The recent decline of most commodities in the domestic futures market has nothing to do with the recent money shortage in the capital market and the resulting rise in interest rates and the plunge in the bond market." Analysts with the "China Times" reporter interview said.
And with the exchange"s continued measures to cool the market, such as the implementation of the intra-day opening limit system for rebar steel in the previous period, Da Shang has increased the lower trading margin and the limit range of iron ore. These measures have accelerated the withdrawal of funds from the futures market. Taking coke futures contracts as an example, from the perspective of capital flow, there was a significant inflow of funds in April, and the open position increased to 361,000 lots; In May and June, funds continued to outflow, and the position fell to 160,000 lots; From July to October, the inflow of funds again showed a trend; There was a sharp decrease in November. As of November 28, the total position of coke contracts reached 230,000 lots, a 115% decrease from the 494,000 lots at the end of last month.
"Now not only the futures market is not good trading, even the steel mill quotation does not have continuity, today just raised 150 yuan/ton, tomorrow may be down 100 yuan/ton." Faced with the huge volatility of the black variety day, some investors in the futures market are now increasingly nostalgic for the small fluctuations of dozens of points in the previous day. Like now, maybe tonight"s evening session opened or the price of the limit, and the next day, I do not know why it has become the limit." Futures market Mr. Wang said in an interview with reporters.
For the recent market trend, Cheng Xiaoyong, assistant director of the Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute, also said that the recent sharp fluctuations in commodities may be the result of the game of policy and capital investment demand. Since the beginning of this year, most commodities have rebounded beyond expectations, on the one hand, is the result of supply contraction brought by supply-side reform or the industry"s own clearing. On the other hand, it is the result of speculative demand in different assets under the background of abundant liquidity. At present, the regulators have seen the irrational side of the commodity rise and have introduced several policies to crack down on excessive speculation. At present, the effect of national regulation has gradually emerged, the fundamentals have begun to weaken, coupled with the continuous tightening of funds, and market liquidity has been inhibited. It is expected that the price of black commodities still has a certain downside in the short term.
Rio Tinto wants to raise prices for Chinese steelmakers
Bloomberg cited people familiar with the matter as saying that Rio Tinto wants to sell iron ore products at higher prices to Chinese steelmakers. It is understood that Rio Tinto is asking Chinese steelmakers to pay more than $1 a tonne above the benchmark index price provided by Platts in the signing of long-term iron ore supply contracts for next year. In response, Li Xinchuang, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association, said that Rio Tinto"s price increase plan is not a good idea. As the iron ore market oversupply pattern has not changed, production is bound to continue to rise. So iron ore prices can"t just go up.
"Since China needs to import 85 per cent of grade iron ore, when the US dollar began to continue to rise relative to the renminbi, this has a strong support for high-grade iron ore spot prices." At the same time, the continuous rise in rebar prices has also made steel mills willing to accept high-price mines, especially high-grade mines with tight supply in the near future. On November 28, the 62% grade Price index rebounded to $80.83 / ton, a sharp increase of $16.1 / ton from the end of October, and a one-month increase of 25%." Engaged in iron ore trade Ma Wenjun said in an interview with reporters.
At present, the spot iron ore equivalent futures benchmark price of the northern port is about 705 yuan/ton, which is 80 yuan/ton higher than the iron ore 1701 contract. In the later stage, if the relative strength of the US dollar is expected to continue, coupled with a large discount on futures, iron ore is expected to maintain a strong pattern, which will also support rebar to return to the rising pattern. In this regard, Sheng Zhicheng, head of the Shanghai branch of Yangtze River Futures, said that Vale"s long association purchase price for Chinese steel mills has a very adverse impact on domestic steel mills.
"Although the downstream steel market has risen sharply on raw material iron ore, a moderate increase is also reasonable, but due to its relatively loose supply side, the end of the year to increase safety and environmental inspections, steel mill maintenance increase, the demand for iron ore failed to bring incremental." Therefore, the fundamentals of supply and demand and the arrival cost of imported iron ore do not support a sustained sharp rise in iron ore." Analysts with the "China Times" reporter interview said.
At the same time, in the case of raw material prices continue to rise, the profitability of steel mills will appear phased changes. According to institutional research shows that the steel mills are profitable in March to September this year, of which the profit situation is better in May. From the perspective of steel supply side reform to capacity, domestic crude steel production showed a decline in 2017. Therefore, the agency expects crude steel production in 2017 to be 780 million tons.
"According to the law of previous years, market prices rise and fall in most cases, and the spot market has never bought up." In addition, in recent years, the concept of winter storage in the market has gradually faded, and even the phenomenon of off-season is not light, and the peak season is not prosperous. Of course, due to the impact of transportation and other aspects of winter, companies will set up alert stocks to ensure production. Analysts said.
As market participants say, the rhythm of the black variety is now like a small boat in the big waves, and it will turn over. For this skyrocketing and plunging market, insiders said that this reflects the market itself is full of contradictions, the original bull market this year is initiated by the supply side and maintain black strength, but near the end of the year in the case of weak supply and demand, the market is confused about the future trend.
Money game black varieties
Recently, rebar and iron ore have reached a new high, and there is a collective limit, which is the result of multiple factors. The new round of property market regulation and tightening policies represented by Shanghai and Tianjin exceeded market expectations, and the real estate market faced cooling pressure.In addition, on November 29, China's 10-year bond futures fell 0.81%, a large decline since the listing; Shibor (Shanghai Interbank offered rate) rose across the board for the 15th consecutive trading day, and some people have used "money shortage" to describe the current capital market, the recent market liquidity has been significantly tightened, and the cost of capital continues to increase.
"Since the beginning of this year, long and short funds have been constantly playing games, which also makes the "asset shortage" and "fund shortage" on the futures board." The asset shortage in the first half of the year led to the reallocation of funds, which brought about large fluctuations in the futures plate; The recent decline of most commodities in the domestic futures market has nothing to do with the recent money shortage in the capital market and the resulting rise in interest rates and the plunge in the bond market." Analysts with the "China Times" reporter interview said.
And with the exchange"s continued measures to cool the market, such as the implementation of the intra-day opening limit system for rebar steel in the previous period, Da Shang has increased the lower trading margin and the limit range of iron ore. These measures have accelerated the withdrawal of funds from the futures market. Taking coke futures contracts as an example, from the perspective of capital flow, there was a significant inflow of funds in April, and the open position increased to 361,000 lots; In May and June, funds continued to outflow, and the position fell to 160,000 lots; From July to October, the inflow of funds again showed a trend; There was a sharp decrease in November. As of November 28, the total position of coke contracts reached 230,000 lots, a 115% decrease from the 494,000 lots at the end of last month.
"Now not only the futures market is not good trading, even the steel mill quotation does not have continuity, today just raised 150 yuan/ton, tomorrow may be down 100 yuan/ton." Faced with the huge volatility of the black variety day, some investors in the futures market are now increasingly nostalgic for the small fluctuations of dozens of points in the previous day. Like now, maybe tonight"s evening session opened or the price of the limit, and the next day, I do not know why it has become the limit." Futures market Mr. Wang said in an interview with reporters.
For the recent market trend, Cheng Xiaoyong, assistant director of the Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute, also said that the recent sharp fluctuations in commodities may be the result of the game of policy and capital investment demand. Since the beginning of this year, most commodities have rebounded beyond expectations, on the one hand, is the result of supply contraction brought by supply-side reform or the industry"s own clearing. On the other hand, it is the result of speculative demand in different assets under the background of abundant liquidity. At present, the regulators have seen the irrational side of the commodity rise and have introduced several policies to crack down on excessive speculation. At present, the effect of national regulation has gradually emerged, the fundamentals have begun to weaken, coupled with the continuous tightening of funds, and market liquidity has been inhibited. It is expected that the price of black commodities still has a certain downside in the short term.
Rio Tinto wants to raise prices for Chinese steelmakers
Bloomberg cited people familiar with the matter as saying that Rio Tinto wants to sell iron ore products at higher prices to Chinese steelmakers. It is understood that Rio Tinto is asking Chinese steelmakers to pay more than $1 a tonne above the benchmark index price provided by Platts in the signing of long-term iron ore supply contracts for next year. In response, Li Xinchuang, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association, said that Rio Tinto"s price increase plan is not a good idea. As the iron ore market oversupply pattern has not changed, production is bound to continue to rise. So iron ore prices can"t just go up.
"Since China needs to import 85 per cent of grade iron ore, when the US dollar began to continue to rise relative to the renminbi, this has a strong support for high-grade iron ore spot prices." At the same time, the continuous rise in rebar prices has also made steel mills willing to accept high-price mines, especially high-grade mines with tight supply in the near future. On November 28, the 62% grade Price index rebounded to $80.83 / ton, a sharp increase of $16.1 / ton from the end of October, and a one-month increase of 25%." Engaged in iron ore trade Ma Wenjun said in an interview with reporters.
At present, the spot iron ore equivalent futures benchmark price of the northern port is about 705 yuan/ton, which is 80 yuan/ton higher than the iron ore 1701 contract. In the later stage, if the relative strength of the US dollar is expected to continue, coupled with a large discount on futures, iron ore is expected to maintain a strong pattern, which will also support rebar to return to the rising pattern. In this regard, Sheng Zhicheng, head of the Shanghai branch of Yangtze River Futures, said that Vale"s long association purchase price for Chinese steel mills has a very adverse impact on domestic steel mills.
"Although the downstream steel market has risen sharply on raw material iron ore, a moderate increase is also reasonable, but due to its relatively loose supply side, the end of the year to increase safety and environmental inspections, steel mill maintenance increase, the demand for iron ore failed to bring incremental." Therefore, the fundamentals of supply and demand and the arrival cost of imported iron ore do not support a sustained sharp rise in iron ore." Analysts with the "China Times" reporter interview said.
At the same time, in the case of raw material prices continue to rise, the profitability of steel mills will appear phased changes. According to institutional research shows that the steel mills are profitable in March to September this year, of which the profit situation is better in May. From the perspective of steel supply side reform to capacity, domestic crude steel production showed a decline in 2017. Therefore, the agency expects crude steel production in 2017 to be 780 million tons.
"According to the law of previous years, market prices rise and fall in most cases, and the spot market has never bought up." In addition, in recent years, the concept of winter storage in the market has gradually faded, and even the phenomenon of off-season is not light, and the peak season is not prosperous. Of course, due to the impact of transportation and other aspects of winter, companies will set up alert stocks to ensure production. Analysts said.
